EFFECTS OF THE CRISIS ECONOMIC 2008

Nobody doubts that the world is in crisis, nor that the crisis originated in the financial system of the United States and then spread, first to the rest of the Western world (Western Europe and Japan) and emerging economies. The crisis has occurred within the capitalist system or into other words, within a free market economic system, which is part of the system, a global financial market, hence it is not surprising that the most affected areas have been United States , as the origin of the crisis, the European Union and Japan, which together contribute almost 70% of world production.

The crisis will also have strong effects on the fragile economic balance, social and political rights in developing countries, particularly in Latin America for his dependency on raw materials production, remittances and foreign capital flows that are shrinking rapidly. The root causes of this are related to the huge imbalances, both external, as prosecutors in the United States so far this twenty-first century, the country imported more than it exported and the government spent more than it raised, both in excess. This allowed the period of prosperity between the U.S. where the financial system lends support to those who did not have to repay loans, the system became so complex with an impressive development of financial systems required to regulate the banks was very little, and some were left out of this, at this juncture of complication and confusion is the most abundant liquidity generated by the sharp reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve.

At the end of the stability of the U.S. economy, shaken by what became of globalization, world economies, Japan also went into recession to their GDP contracted 0.1% in the period from July to September and 0.4% with respect to annual recalculation in 2008. Japanese companies were hard hit by falling U.S. demand and the difficulties in obtaining bank finance, the worst could be on its way by the aftermath of the global financial turbulence, particularly the collapse in international demand vehicles and electronic goods from Japan. Signature Automotive Toyota Motor Corp., for example, reduced the forecast of net income for the fiscal year of $ 5,500 million, almost one third of the gains of last year.


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EFECTOS DE LA CRISIS ECONÓMICA 2008

Nadie duda que el mundo está en crisis; tampoco que la crisis se originó en el sistema financiero de los Estados Unidos y de ahí se propagó, primero al resto del mundo occidental (Europa Occidental y Japón) y luego a las economías emergentes. La crisis ha ocurrido dentro del sistema capitalista o para ponerlo en otras palabras, dentro de un sistema económico de libre mercado, sistema del cual es parte, un mercado financiero global; de ahí que no sea sorprendente que las zonas más afectadas hayan sido Estados Unidos, como origen de la crisis, la unión Europea y Japón, que juntos contribuyen con casi el 70% de la producción mundial.

La crisis también tendrá fuertes efectos en los frágiles equilibrios económicos, sociales y políticos de los países en desarrollo, en particular de América Latina por su dependencia de la producción de materias primas, remesas y flujos de capitales externos que se están reduciendo rápidamente. Las causas profundas de ésta tienen relación con los enormes desequilibrios, tanto externos, como fiscales de los Estados Unidos en lo que va del siglo XXI; el país importó más que lo exportó y sus gobiernos gastaron más de lo que recaudaron, en ambos casos en exceso. Esto permitió el periodo de bonanza entre los estadounidenses en donde el sistema financiero presto dinero a quienes no tenían respaldo para devolver los préstamos; además el sistema se volvió tan complejo con un impresionante desarrollo de los sistemas financieros que la regulación exigida hacia los bancos fue muy poca, y algunas quedaron fuera de esta; a esta coyuntura de complicación y confusión se le sumo la abundancia de liquidez generada por la brusca reducción de las tasas de interés de la reserva federal.

Al caer la estabilidad de la economía estadounidense, empezó a tambalear por aquello de la globalización, las economías mundiales; Japón también entro en recesión al contraerse su producto bruto 0,1% en el periodo de julio a septiembre y un 0,4% con respecto al calculo anual en el año 2008. Las compañías japonesas se vieron duramente afectadas por la caída de la demanda estadounidense y por las dificultades para obtener financiación de los bancos; la peor parte podría estar en camino por las secuelas de la turbulencia financiera mundial, sobre todo por el desplome en la demanda internacional de vehículos y artículos electrónicos de Japón. La firma automotriz Toyota Motor Corp., por ejemplo, redujo el pronóstico de las utilidades netas para todo el año fiscal a 5.500 millones de dólares, casi una tercera parte de las ganancias del año pasado.

-VRUGT, Evert. U.S. and Japanese macroeconomics news and stock market volatility in Asia-Pacific. [Base de datos en línea]. En: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VFF-4VYXMJH-1&_user=7881949&_coverDate=04%2F01%2F2009&_alid=904552399&_rdoc=13&_fmt=high&_orig=search&_cdi=6009&_sort=d&_st=4&_docanchor=&_ct=128&_acct=C000025027&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=7881949&md5=7932f5951649de6b9315d0821be67b18. Fecha de consulta: 17-04-09

-Ferrari, Cesar. Tiempos de incertidumbre. Causas y consecuencias de la crisis mundial. [Base de datos en línea]. En: Revista de Economía Institucional. http://find.galegroup.com/itx/infomark.do?&contentSet=IAC-Documents&type=retrieve&tabID=T002&prodId=AONE&docId=A191309233&source=gale&srcprod=AONE&userGroupName=udea&version=1.0. Fecha de consulta: 22-03-09.

-Japón, Otro Grande Que Entra En Recesión. [En línea]. En: El tiempo, Medellín, 18,noviembre,2008. http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-3193559. Fecha de consulta: 28-03-09.

ECONOMIC CRISIS UNLEASHED IN 2008

The current economic crisis is a crisis for many announced that like the 29 crisis is precipitated mainly by speculation in asset prices associated with mortgages; seems clear that the crisis was triggered by the subprime real estate, both in USA and in Europe, this bubble burst when the world was again plunged into a global crisis.

It all began with a period of prosperity in which people chose to buy property, because they felt safe assets. The dream of "home ownership" became a reality for everyone, including those who had no job or income (these were the so-called subprime mortgages, which accounted for 20% of all mortgages by 2005 ). The abundance of liquidity was generated by the sharp reduction in interest rates from the Federal Reserve (FED), the equivalent of the Central Bank, in an effort to stimulate the economy after the recession of 2001 reduced the interest rate in 27 opportunities between 2001 and 2003 to reach 1%. People borrowed, bought houses with the money received, which contributed to increased property value and therefore seek another loan to another bank, placing the property purchased as collateral (mortgage) before.

To complicate matters, in 2003, fears of inflation, given the increase in spending power, the Fed decided to raise the interest rate in just two years up to 5%, so those who had borrowed to the extent that had a variable interest rate, face severe difficulties in repayment. Prices fell and there was the crack of the financial system since the debt could no longer afford.

Initially it was thought that the crisis was located in the mortgage industry, but then expanded into the financial system, not just the United States but around the world. Today, as a result of financial integration (the so-called financial globalization), the impacts of the crisis have gone further, hence the emergence of anti-crisis plan, plans of countries not yet affected, they expect the backlash of the crisis.

Ferrari, Cesar. Uncertain times. Causes and consequences of the global crisis. [Online Database]. In: Journal of Institutional Economics. http://find.galegroup.com/itx/infomark.do?&contentSet=IAC-documents&type=retrieve&tabID=T002&prodId=AONE&docId=A191309233&source=gale&srcprod=AONE&userGroupName=udea&version=1.0. Date accessed: 22-03-09.